The Texas Tribune has compiled a list of the most competitive general election races in Texas this November. The Tribune said Republicans are bracing for a difficult midterm election and that Texas appears to have its biggest slate of competitive races for the Legislature and U.S. Congress in years.
The review covered 38 U.S. House seats, all 150 seats in the Texas House and 16 of the 31 seats in the Texas Senate that are up for election this year. Each district was rated "hot" for the most competitive, "warm" for races that could still be in play in a wave year, or "cold" for the least contentious.
The Tribune said it based the ratings on how each district voted in the 2024 presidential and 2018 U.S. Senate elections. It also considered whether an incumbent is running, whether that incumbent ran ahead of their party's 2024 presidential nominee in the district, polling trends and which districts the parties have identified as priorities.