Voters are deciding the U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton and the governor's race, where Greg Abbott faces Gina Hinojosa. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, shared what he plans to watch as early returns come in.
Rottinghaus said he will look at suburban counties including Fort Bend, Williamson, Hays and Collin, where he said Democrats are making significant gains. He said that if Democratic vote shares reach about 50 to 55 percent there, the wave's crest would be fairly high. He also named Tarrant County as a bellwether. Democrats carried it in the 2018 Senate race, he noted, and a large shift there would show where the suburban swing is heading.
He also said the gap between Abbott and Paxton will matter. If Abbott runs five or more points ahead of Paxton, he said, that would be an important warning sign for the Republican ticket. He said about 200,000 to 300,000 voters often split their tickets in Texas.
Rottinghaus said Republicans redrew many South Texas districts hoping Latino voters would help carry them. He said Latino support for Donald Trump in 2024 has swung back sharply, which he said creates problems for Republicans trying to win those seats.