Texas is heading into Election Day with polls showing Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico within the margin of error. Paxton is the state's three-term attorney general, and Talarico is an Austin state legislator. Both have spent the final weeks campaigning across the state.
The Texas Tribune said the race will be shaped by voting blocs including supporters of Sen. John Cornyn who have not decided, rural voters frustrated over data centers, Latino voters along the border and suburban voters in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The outlet listed five trends it will track as results come in Tuesday.
One trend is South Texas, where Republicans made gains in 2024. Early voting turnout there was higher than in 2024 in Hidalgo, Starr and Webb counties, according to the report. Derek Ryan, a GOP data analyst, said Hispanic voters made up 19% of the statewide early electorate, up from 16% in 2022 and 17% in 2024.