Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are within the margin of error in polls for the U.S. Senate race in Texas. Paxton is a three-term state attorney general, and Talarico is an Austin state legislator. In the final weeks, both have campaigned across the state.
South Texas is one area being watched. Republicans gained there in 2024, when Donald Trump carried Cameron, Hidalgo and Webb counties, and Sen. Ted Cruz lost all three while getting between 44% and 47% of the vote. Polling in the region suggests a shift back toward Democrats, but the size of that shift is unclear. Early voter turnout in Hidalgo, Starr and Webb counties was higher than in 2024, according to the report.
Derek Ryan, a GOP data analyst, said Hispanic voters made up 19% of the statewide early vote, up from 16% in 2022 and 17% in 2024. Latino voters make up more than 30% of Texas' eligible electorate.