More than 5.6 million Texans had cast ballots by the end of Tuesday, Oct. 27, according to the Texas Secretary of State. That includes 5,447,391 in-person early votes and 227,086 returned mail ballots, about 29.8% of the state's 19,041,684 registered voters. KERA, citing state data, said turnout at the same point was roughly 21% in 2022 and 24% in 2018.
A Texas Southern University survey released Thursday shows Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 47% in the U.S. Senate race, according to WFAA. Libertarian Ted Brown had 3%, and 1% were undecided. In the governor's race, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott had 50% and Democrat Gina Hinojosa had 47%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 2%. The survey of 2,000 likely voters was taken Oct. 21 to 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 points. A separate Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Oct. 23 showed Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 47%, and Abbott at 51% and Hinojosa at 48%.
Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman, speaking on CNN, said Talarico would need suburban Republican defections, a shift back to Democrats among Hispanic voters in South Texas and low Republican turnout in rural areas to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas since 1994. Early voting ends Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voters need one of seven accepted photo IDs. Details are at VoteTexas.gov and county elections offices.