Texas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. With Election Day approaching, the Texas Observer reports that the race between state Rep. James Talarico and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is the closest it has been in a generation. Vote tracking shows a surge of likely Democratic voters in early voting, outpacing likely Republican voters. Early voting records show more than 5 million Texans have already cast ballots.

Talarico, a Democrat, has led in Senate polls, the report says. From July through September, he raised a record $64 million, compared with $18 million for Paxton. The report says Elon Musk has committed more than $200 million to support Paxton. Several recent surveys show Talarico with about a 2-point lead, which is within the margin of error.

Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic strategist, told the Texas Observer that this is the latest election cycle in which he recalls thinking statewide Democratic candidates still had a chance to win.