Polymarket traders gave state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) a 74% chance of winning the U.S. Senate race before polls closed on Election Day, according to an Action Network update made at 9:02 a.m. Central. A New York Times and Siena Research Institute poll released November 1 showed Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), 50% to 43%.
Unofficial state returns from Wednesday morning showed Talarico with 5,410,057 votes (55.0%) to Paxton's 4,228,924 (43.0%), a lead of more than 1.18 million votes. Polymarket odds also favored Democrats in several congressional races. Bobby Pulido defeated U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) in District 15, Johnny Garcia defeated Carlos De La Cruz in District 35, and U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) defeated Eric Flores in District 34, according to unofficial returns.
Odds did not match every statewide result. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was the favorite in an Election Day reading, but state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) defeated him. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) was favored in a November 2 reading, but state Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin) won. Odds from an October 24 reading favored state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston), while unofficial results showed state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) ahead.