About 7.7 million Texans have already cast ballots ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, according to the report. That total came after 12 days of early voting. Roughly one-third of the state's voters are expected to come from major counties around Dallas and Fort Worth.
The report cites early voting data from Ryan Data and Research showing Democratic primary voters with an advantage of about 25,000 votes statewide. It also reports an advantage of nearly 170,000 votes in Dallas County and about 26,000 more in Tarrant County.
Ross Hunt of Hunt Research said on NBC 5's Lone Star Politics that Republicans trailing this far into early voting is unusual in his 18 years in the business. He said Republican incumbents, including Gov. Greg Abbott, are still likely to win if Republican voters turn out in large numbers, but he expects closer races than usual. Hunt also said midterm elections have historically brought a backlash against the party in power, which in Texas has held power at every level of the ballot for decades.