Dr. Michael Faber, an associate professor of political science at Texas State University, made midterm election predictions at a fall lecture hosted by the LBJ Museum of San Marcos. The event took place a few days into early voting.
Faber pointed to historical midterm trends that favor the party out of power, favorable polling for Democrats and low approval ratings for President Trump. He said polling is imperfect and cannot guarantee an outcome. He also said the party out of power often has more motivation to vote, and that voters can grow tired of a president during the first two years of a term.
Faber said the House is the clearest opportunity for a Democratic victory. He said Democrats have 184 seats that appear safe and 20 that are fairly likely, while Republicans have about 160 safe seats and 29 that are fairly likely. Counting leaning races, he said Democrats are at 220 seats, above the 218 needed for a majority. He also predicted substantial Democratic gains in the Senate.