The National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley office has posted its outlook for November through January. It says the period could be warmer than normal, cooler than normal, or normal, and cooler-than-normal is the least likely of the three. The outlook follows a hot October, which was among the five hottest on record for many areas of the region.
Meteorologists said they favor a normal to warmer-than-normal outcome over a cooler one. They pointed to a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a long-term climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean, and to overall drier trends. They also said storms are tracking farther north and that the region lacks strong tropical moisture from the Equatorial Pacific.
The meteorologists said a wetter-than-normal winter is still possible for the Valley and other parts of deep South Texas. They put the chance of that outcome at 20 to 40 percent.