Online prediction markets show the Texas governor's race has tightened ahead of Tuesday's election. Kalshi gave Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 60% odds of winning over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, according to an analysis by CNBC. Hinojosa's odds on Kalshi rose from about 8% in mid-July to 40% on Monday. On Polymarket, her odds rose from a 5% low in late July to 39% on Monday, CNBC's analysis showed.
The RealClearPolitics Poll Average showed Abbott with a 2.3-point lead as of Tuesday. Political observers said prediction markets do not use traditional polling methods and are not a substitute for polling. CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi, which includes a minority investment.
Hinojosa would be Texas's first Democratic governor in more than 30 years and its first Latina governor. She has run an economic populist campaign. The story said Abbott, a three-term incumbent, has outspent her campaign by a wide margin.