The National Weather Service forecasts a 100% chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the Texarkana region on Tuesday, mainly before 3 p.m. The agency said 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph, and the high temperature will be near 72 degrees.
Polls will be open from 7:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. in Arkansas and from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in Texas. The Gazette reported that the effect of weather on turnout is hard to predict. It cited a 2007 study in The Journal of Politics that found each additional inch of Election Day rainfall reduced participation by just under 1%. It also cited a 2023 analysis of 34 earlier studies that linked more rain to lower turnout, with younger voters most affected. Researchers said the effect may be smaller in states with widespread early and absentee voting.
According to Texas Secretary of State data, 19,613 voters in Bowie County, or 31.8% of registered voters, cast early or absentee ballots through Friday, Oct. 30, the last day of early voting in Texas. According to Arkansas Secretary of State data, 6,096 Miller County voters, or 21.2% of registered voters, had cast early or absentee ballots through Saturday, Oct. 31. That figure does not include votes cast on Monday, Nov. 2, the last day of early voting in Arkansas. Researchers caution that weather's effect on turnout does not necessarily change election outcomes.