Texas Republicans redrew the state's congressional map in a special session in 2025, aiming to flip five Democratic-held seats. Political experts say the party may struggle to reach that number. Democrats left the state in summer 2025 to try to block the vote, then returned, and Republicans passed the new map. Other states, including California, also moved to redraw their maps.
Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said President Trump asked Texas Republicans to redraw the maps. Experts say the new map is designed to help Republicans gain three seats in southern Texas, one in the Dallas area and one in the Houston area. One targeted seat is the new 9th District, which covers portions of east Harris County and all of Liberty County. Congressman Al Green had long held the district, which Republicans moved to an area with a larger Republican base. Jones said only three percent of current District 9 residents can vote in the new district. The race is between Republican Alex Mealer and Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.
Jones said polling suggests Republicans will fall short of five seats, and said it looks difficult for them to win much beyond three. He also said redistricting may cost Republicans one of their own seats in a district running from San Antonio to the border, where the incumbent may lose. If Republicans flip no seats and lose that race, Jones said, the map would result in a net loss for the GOP.